Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9fa…753d sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-12%) realized −$243 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$263
14 days−$242
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$189
crypto 3% −$50
other 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -18.8% -26.5% 65% 35% -25.1%
≤30d 33 -10.7% -19.2% 76% 33% -21.0%
≤90d 33 -10.7% -19.2% 76% 33% -21.0%
all 33 -10.7% -19.2% 76% 33% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -21.0%
10% -26.9% 15% -28.6%
15% -34.0% 3% -35.5%
20% -40.4% 3% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$54 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage16d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Toulouse win? Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $70 −$69 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $26 −$26 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $40 +$10 +24%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $64 +$36 +56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $55 +$5 +8%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $10 −$9 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $135 −$128 -95%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $125 +$11 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $97 +$30 +31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $110 −$13 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $104 +$6 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $85 +$18 +21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $80 +$6 +7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $59 +$20 +34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $55 +$5 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $42 +$4 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 +$2 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $29 +$2 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $24 +$3 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $22 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $54 32m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $52 1h
Will Toulouse win? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 1h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $26 20h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $40 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $63 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $6 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $7 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $0 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $55 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 62¢ $20 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 60¢ $20 3d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 5¢ $7 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $135 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $125 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $97 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 84¢ $97 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $110 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $104 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $85 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.40 · official $58.40 (match) · 65 history records