Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f6…6c39 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
politics 15% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 8% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.9% -11.3% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 19 -2.9% -12.1% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -2.9% -12.1% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -1.3% -10.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage280d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $59 −$3 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $18 $0 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Oct 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $42 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $9 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $19 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $28 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records