Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f5…603b world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$5
other 24% +$1
politics 9% −$5
culture 5% $0
sports 5% −$6
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -8.7%
all 44 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage475d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $50 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $46 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 24 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $17 $0 -0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 08 $18 $0 -2%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 07 $18 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 22 $13 +$6 +45%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $13 $0 -1%
Norfolk State vs. North Carolina Central Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Hornets Mar 02 $19 −$6 -30%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win between 5 and 7 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awa Mar 02 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $22 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $13 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $12 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $11 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $10 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $16 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $27 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $25 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $23 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $49 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $49 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $48 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $49 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.93 · official $45.91 (match) · 117 history records