Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E9 0xe9f5…cb06 crypto 273 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,315 (-5%) realized −$2,287 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate49%131W / 135L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day76.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,539
7 days−$1,704
14 days−$1,607
30 days−$2,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,458
other 21% −$1,805
sports 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -14.5% -22.7% 51% 29% -16.5%
≤30d 211 -13.6% -21.8% 48% 17% -15.1%
≤90d 266 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 18% -16.0%
all 266 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 18% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 18% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 16% -24.0%
15% -35.8% 15% -31.3%
20% -42.1% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$54 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2,287
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses131 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)266 / 273
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day76.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $1,239 −$39 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $318 +$60 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $309 −$275 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $178 −$146 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $90 +$25 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $355 +$35 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $191 +$161 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $92 +$60 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $131 +$93 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $253 +$118 +47%
BNB Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $418 −$407 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$86 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $894 −$106 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $1,467 −$107 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $364 +$250 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $1,204 +$79 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $824 +$699 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $1,260 −$313 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Jun 29 $269 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $380 +$135 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $1,458 −$664 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $985 −$313 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
BNB Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $1,093 −$101 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $421 +$159 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $542 −$214 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $548 −$78 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $906 −$164 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $281 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.35 (match) · 3500 history records