Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9f5…3e7a sports 844 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,701 (+1%) realized +$4,963 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%488W / 345L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$2,463est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$16,756
other 2% +$742
politics 0% +$10
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +36.0% +23.0% 61% 57% +7.7%
≤30d 147 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 48% -6.7%
≤90d 390 +68.3% +52.3% 63% 56% -3.1%
all 833 +54.0% +39.3% 59% 54% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.3% 54% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here +26.0% 49% -15.0%
15% +13.8% 46% -23.2%
20% +2.7% 43% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$717) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$494 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$5,225
Realized+$4,963
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses488 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,463
Open positions11
Markets (closed)833 / 844
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$536
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 49¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,071 +$71 (+7%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 41¢ 42¢ $956 $963 +$7 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 50¢ 46¢ $1,040 $946 −$94 (-9%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Over 39¢ 36¢ $987 $898 −$89 (-9%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $461 $468 +$6 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 24¢ 24¢ $320 $327 +$7 (+2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 40¢ $458 $282 −$175 (-38%)
Spain to win the second half? No 24¢ 24¢ $231 $227 −$5 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims) Levan Chokheli 63¢ 78¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+23%)
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+75%)
Will Joaquin Niemann finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $65 +$21 +32%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $224 +$726 +325%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,600 −$1,573 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2,418 +$382 +16%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $234 +$186 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $647 +$762 +118%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals Jun 19 $417 +$83 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,589 +$1,604 +101%
Jovo Lukić: 1+ goals Jun 18 $583 +$141 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $384 −$376 -98%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $475 −$467 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $497 +$1,025 +206%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $165 +$75 +46%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $292 +$66 +23%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $949 −$947 -100%
João Cancelo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,111 +$2,020 +182%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $934 +$186 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $892 −$878 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $1,986 +$2,014 +101%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $372 −$367 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $885 +$64 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 +$16 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,437 −$1,412 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $833 +$867 +104%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1,276 +$1,205 +94%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $691 −$679 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $630 −$619 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $673 +$115 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$72 +874%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,190 +$2,388 +201%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1,257 +$700 +56%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $683 −$683 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,805 +$2,023 +112%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $173 +$59 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $397 −$390 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,243 −$1,241 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $24 +$11 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $582 −$578 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 14 $383 +$167 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$40 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to win the second half? BUY No 24¢ $237 3m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $987 9m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 24¢ $327 1h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $65 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,600 19h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 23¢ $224 22h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $234 22h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $2,418 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $188 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $66 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $21 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $4 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $13 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $24 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $13 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $4 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $13 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $43 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $52 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $15 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $4 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $83 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,225.02 · official $5,225.02 (match) · 3500 history records