Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E9 0xe9f5…9e94 crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$445 (+4%) realized +$266 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%54W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$735
14 days+$684
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,161
crypto 37% −$189
other 16% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.3% +11.6% 47% 47% +58.5%
≤30d 140 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 39% -4.4%
≤90d 140 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 39% -4.4%
all 140 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 39% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 39% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 39% -13.5%
15% -33.3% 39% -21.9%
20% -39.8% 39% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$58 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 86
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 155
History coverage17d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 0¢ 100¢ $0 $208 +$208 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 38¢ $120 $96 −$24 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$102 +100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $36 +$107 +298%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $88 +$62 +70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 +$97 +238%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND United Sta Jun 20 $136 +$368 +271%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 −$67 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 +$42 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $97 +$316 +325%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $525 −$518 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $151 +$145 +96%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $90 +$136 +152%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $147 +$161 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$166 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $197 −$197 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $283 +$310 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $155 +$133 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $155 +$134 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $122 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $153 13h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $51 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $102 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $39 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 22¢ $205 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 48¢ $193 36h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $143 36h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 28¢ $143 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND New Zeala BUY 6¢ $51 38h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $36 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 39h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $102 39h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 28¢ $204 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND United Sta SELL 86¢ $504 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $68 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $41 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND United Sta BUY 23¢ $136 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 27¢ $153 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Wil BUY 23¢ $205 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.37 · official $499.37 · 452 history records