Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f2…38ae sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$23 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$23
sports 38% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 52% 52% -13.1%
≤30d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 52% 52% -13.1%
≤90d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 52% 52% -13.1%
all 23 -17.4% -25.3% 52% 52% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 52% -13.1%
10% -32.4% 43% -21.4%
15% -39.0% 39% -29.0%
20% -44.9% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$10 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$18 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $30 +$18 +60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$8 -77%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$9 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 38h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $25 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 38h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 82¢ $10 38h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $15 46h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $147 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 13¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $12 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.94 · official $203.95 (match) · 41 history records