Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe9f0…70ac other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$37
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.4% -35.3% 43% 29% -3.3%
≤30d 7 -28.4% -35.3% 43% 29% -3.3%
≤90d 7 -28.4% -35.3% 43% 29% -3.3%
all 7 -28.4% -35.3% 43% 29% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 29% -3.3%
10% -41.4% 29% -12.6%
15% -47.1% 29% -21.0%
20% -52.3% 29% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$12 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $420 +$22 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $34 +$45 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 −$34 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $227 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $220 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $99.32 (match) · 16 history records