Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe9f0…3f71 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+11%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$34
sports 36% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.3% -1.2% 83% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 6 +9.3% -1.2% 83% 50% +1.1%
≤90d 6 +9.3% -1.2% 83% 50% +1.1%
all 6 +9.3% -1.2% 83% 50% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 50% +1.1%
10% -10.6% 17% -8.6%
15% -19.2% 17% -17.4%
20% -27.2% 17% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×45.08 per $1 lost it wins $45.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Sae Noguchi Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +122%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 +$13 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Sae Noguchi BUY Miho Kuramochi 98¢ $8 1h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Sae Noguchi BUY Miho Kuramochi 98¢ $90 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 1¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records