Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f0…8baf crypto 35 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$280 (-4%) realized −$92 · open −$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$188
crypto 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.5% -74.2% 17% 17% -84.3%
≤30d 34 -34.1% -40.4% 26% 26% -57.9%
≤90d 34 -34.1% -40.4% 26% 26% -57.9%
all 34 -34.1% -40.4% 26% 26% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 26% -57.9%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 24% -62.0%
15% -51.3% 24% -65.6%
20% -56.1% 24% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,865
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6,053 $5,865 −$188 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,533 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $648 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,864.61 · official $5,807.40 (match) · 69 history records