Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9ef…e0e3 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$169 · open +$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$140
other 43% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -70.0%
≤30d 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -70.0%
≤90d 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -70.0%
all 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.6% 0% -70.0%
10% -74.3% 0% -72.8%
15% -76.8% 0% -75.5%
20% -79.1% 0% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$147 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 48¢ $337 $500 +$163 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $211 −$206 -98%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $234 −$23 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $221 −$212 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $2 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $342 1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $211 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States 18¢ $211 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $234 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $221 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.94 · official $499.94 (match) · 7 history records