Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9ed…e29c crypto 472 markets active 2d ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,887 (+30%) realized +$5,906 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%132W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,268
other 20% −$4,116
sports 2% +$167
weather 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +3.9% -6.0% 15% 15% -39.1%
≤30d 509 -13.3% -21.6% 25% 23% -18.1%
≤90d 520 -9.8% -18.4% 25% 24% -17.3%
all 536 -11.6% -20.0% 25% 23% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 23% -32.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 22% -38.9%
15% -34.7% 19% -44.8%
20% -41.1% 18% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$47 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,906
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses132 / 404
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)536 / 472
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 17 $0 −$82 -22462%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 17 $13 −$101 -779%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 17 $145 −$236 -162%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$112 +47290%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 17 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 17 $70 +$165 +237%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 17 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $302 −$206 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 17 $33 +$501 +1498%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $80 +$532 +665%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $151 −$65 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $24 +$294 +1225%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 17 $5 +$47 +949%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 39h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY 32¢ $14 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland ( BUY 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 4d
ITF Los Angeles: Maria Aytoyan vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Maria Aytoyan 75¢ $76 4d
ITF Los Angeles: Maria Aytoyan vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Maria Aytoyan 77¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 3500 history records