Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9de…460c world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 17% +$2
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -1.0% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -1.0% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage460d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $56 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 +$2 +20%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 20 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $33 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $33 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 93 history records