Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9dc…0472 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$906 (+1%) realized +$906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,262per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$35
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$59
politics 42% −$85
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$12
culture 1% −$3
sports 1% +$1,030
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -2.7% -12.0% 10% 7% -9.0%
all 115 -2.6% -11.8% 10% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -9.0%
10% -20.3% 7% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 6% -25.6%
20% -35.0% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,671) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$5 · ×23.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,262
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $355 $355 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,977 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $285 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $4,265 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,550 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,571 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,752 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,947 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $788 +$1 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,227 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,463 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $4,692 −$7 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $68 +$34 +50%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,390 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $55 +$65 +119%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,931 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $44 +$40 +90%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 19 $279 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $2,763 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $557 30m
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $558 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 20h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $284 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $285 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,447 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,450 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,581 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,583 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,434 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,435 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,636 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,638 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,303 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,547 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $355 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,550 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,662 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,521 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,523 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,495 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,497 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,410 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,411 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.02 · official $355.02 (match) · 356 history records