Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9da…7ebd other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,444 (-3%) realized −$1,444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$43
politics 44% −$31
sports 3% −$1,399
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -4.9% -13.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 57 -10.9% -19.4% 7% 4% -12.1%
all 57 -10.9% -19.4% 7% 4% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 4% -12.1%
10% -27.1% 4% -20.5%
15% -34.1% 4% -28.2%
20% -40.6% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,145) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$1,444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage84d
Avg bet$924
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $860 $859 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $973 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $662 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $899 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,883 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,714 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,770 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $23 +$9 +40%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 $0 -6%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 10 $1,283 −$1,283 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,281 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $4,058 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 06 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $2,143 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $2,258 −$2 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 31 $108 −$12 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Mar 29 $37 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $860 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $693 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $694 5h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $261 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $661 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $662 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $897 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $899 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $758 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $760 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $818 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $819 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $783 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $758 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $817 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $818 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $834 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $836 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $524 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $525 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $888 18d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $889 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $448 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.12 · official $859.12 (match) · 164 history records