Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9d5…d0ea other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$294 (+2%) realized +$407 · open −$113
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%78W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$269
14 days+$271
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 50% +$241
other 24% −$21
sports 13% +$2
crypto 5% +$31
world 3% −$15
tech 3% +$34
culture 2% +$12
politics 1% +$10
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.0% +1.4% 77% 52% -1.5%
≤30d 34 +11.3% +0.7% 79% 47% -2.3%
≤90d 66 +4.9% -5.1% 68% 42% -5.6%
all 117 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 33% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 33% -7.0%
10% -16.1% 18% -15.9%
15% -24.2% 10% -24.1%
20% -31.7% 7% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized+$407
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses78 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 125
History coverage308d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $323 $265 −$58 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 100¢ $90 $101 +$11 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 18¢ $135 $35 −$100 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$59 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$8 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $139 +$5 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $94 −$60 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $91 −$58 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$13 +35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $42 +$8 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $231 −$11 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$25 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 14 $552 +$36 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $181 +$19 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 −$17 -46%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$8 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $82 +$18 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$66 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 09 $192 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 02 $152 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $524 +$36 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 15 $164 −$138 -84%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 08 $191 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 07 $273 +$35 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $100 +$50 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 06 $492 +$107 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 06 $611 +$39 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 03 $156 +$44 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 03 $281 +$19 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $172 −$65 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $309 +$14 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $117 +$32 +27%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $44 +$14 +31%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $24 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $90 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $40 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 35¢ $34 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $33 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $132 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $69 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 37h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.37 · official $1,035.37 (match) · 579 history records