Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9d5…720f other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-11%) realized −$206 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$682
sports 40% +$635
world 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +34.5% +21.7% 21% 21% -14.2%
≤30d 28 +34.5% +21.7% 21% 21% -14.2%
≤90d 28 +34.5% +21.7% 21% 21% -14.2%
all 28 +34.5% +21.7% 21% 21% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 21% -14.2%
10% +10.1% 21% -22.4%
15% -0.6% 18% -29.9%
20% -10.3% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$61 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$150 +586%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $46 +$162 +350%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $26 +$27 +107%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$146 +503%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 −$42 -34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $286 −$171 -60%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$749 +1456%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $26 28m
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 28m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $176 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $51 5h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $51 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $208 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $32 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $14 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 9h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $51 25h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 47h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 32¢ $53 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $174 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.45 · official $43.45 (match) · 52 history records