Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E9 0xe9d3…079f sports 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,238 (-6%) realized −$46,114 · open −$124
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%247W / 191L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,631per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$9,666est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,800
7 days−$4,596
14 days−$4,467
30 days−$15,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$59,072
other 1% +$1,927
crypto 1% +$447
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 59% -16.3%
≤30d 138 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 54% -15.2%
≤90d 438 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 54% -15.8%
all 438 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 54% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 54% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 45% -23.8%
15% -29.6% 34% -31.2%
20% -36.5% 21% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,024) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$667 vs −$1,159 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$46,114
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses247 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9,666
Open positions1
Markets (closed)438 / 440
History coverage71d
Avg bet$1,631
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Anna Blinkova 61¢ 40¢ $351 $228 −$124 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $1,530 −$1,177 -77%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5,069 −$5,014 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2,224 −$2,200 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $4,895 +$2,406 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3,033 −$1,210 -40%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $1,447 −$1,360 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $264 +$149 +56%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,525 +$1,080 +31%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $669 +$66 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2,980 +$1,693 +57%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,687 +$258 +15%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $2,978 +$1,234 +41%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,323 −$1,305 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $918 +$1,406 +153%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2,618 +$280 +11%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,480 +$1,135 +77%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,028 +$527 +51%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $705 +$232 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,221 −$2,203 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $905 +$1,316 +145%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,083 −$1,067 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $980 +$106 +11%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $1,016 −$996 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $609 −$605 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $576 +$32 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,070 +$502 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,228 +$841 +68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $858 +$373 +43%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $616 −$241 -39%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $626 −$618 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $465 +$162 +35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,536 −$1,521 -99%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $1,056 +$480 +46%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $60 +$62 +104%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,462 −$469 -32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $946 +$517 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $809 +$138 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $410 +$398 +97%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $850 −$442 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $560 +$292 +52%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $413 +$148 +36%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $279 +$133 +48%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $538 −$528 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1,089 −$4 -0%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $553 −$461 -83%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $869 +$676 +78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $990 −$123 -12%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $428 −$421 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $560 −$142 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 61¢ $355 35m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova 14¢ $353 36m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 58¢ $1,530 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5,069 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 64¢ $2,224 22h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $7,301 22h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 70¢ $1,968 24h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 64¢ $2,927 24h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 39¢ $1,823 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 12¢ $5 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 12¢ $3 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 13¢ $19 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 25¢ $2 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 26¢ $4 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 24¢ $7 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 24¢ $1 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 20¢ $4 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 21¢ $5 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 20¢ $2 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 22¢ $1 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 20¢ $15 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 50¢ $12 24h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $3,033 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 62¢ $354 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 62¢ $499 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 61¢ $121 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 61¢ $6 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 61¢ $3 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 61¢ $52 27h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 61¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.52 · official $227.52 (match) · 1370 history records