Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9d1…6c7c other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$1 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$14
crypto 5% +$1
politics 3% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -83.6% -85.2% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤30d 4 -83.6% -85.2% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤90d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 72% 28% -20.0%
all 18 -5.7% -14.7% 72% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 28% -20.0%
10% -22.8% 28% -27.6%
15% -30.3% 22% -34.6%
20% -37.1% 11% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)18 / 46
History coverage67d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $55 $44 −$11 (-20%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+74%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 5d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 6d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 6d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 6d
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 27¢ $2 7d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.08 · official $285.92 (match) · 152 history records