Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9cf…dbad politics 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,306 (+26%) realized +$4,026 · open −$720
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,206per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$18,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$859
politics 44% −$1,577
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
323.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×137076906283136.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×137076906283136.0 per $1 lost it wins $137076906283136.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$18,316
Realized+$4,026
Unrealized−$720
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$3,206
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13,845 $12,247 −$1,597 (-12%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,900 $4,875 +$975 (+25%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $640 $660 +$20 (+3%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $651 $534 −$117 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 14 $5,131 +$1 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $336 4h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,316.27 · official $18,316.27 (match) · 3500 history records