Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E9 0xe9ce…7199 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$59 (+56%) realized +$60 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+59.9%	+44.7%	67%	67%	+93.0%
≤30d	3	+59.9%	+44.7%	67%	67%	+93.0%
≤90d	3	+59.9%	+44.7%	67%	67%	+93.0%
all	3	+59.9%	+44.7%	67%	67%	+93.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.7%	67%	+93.0%
10%	+30.8%	67%	+74.6%
15%	+18.2%	67%	+57.7%
20%	+6.6%	67%	+42.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +113% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +113% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$5 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.39 per $1 lost it wins $12.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$31	+$41	+131%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$16	+$23	+148%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	100¢	$73	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$10	3h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$21	3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds	SELL Over	100¢	$39	41h
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	37¢	$16	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.49 · official $49.49 (match) · 9 history records