Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9ce…711f world 264 markets active 1d ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$241 (+3%) realized +$269 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%138W / 101L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$72
14 days+$79
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$102
politics 9% −$41
sports 7% +$387
other 5% +$3
crypto 5% +$22
finance 1% −$16
economics 1% +$13
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.1% -7.7% 56% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 112 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 27% -8.9%
≤90d 239 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 25% -6.0%
all 239 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 25% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 25% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 15% -15.0%
15% -21.4% 12% -23.2%
20% -29.1% 8% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses138 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions25
Markets (closed)239 / 264
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? No 100¢ 100¢ $289 $289 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 98¢ $18 $25 +$6 (+35%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 57¢ 70¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 46¢ 8¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-84%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? No 31¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$13 (-90%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +74%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +46%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $226 −$40 -18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $28 −$8 -29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 -48%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 22 $20 +$16 +84%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$3 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $14 −$1 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $804 +$104 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $4 $0 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $446 −$25 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $154 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 18 $7 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$12 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 18 $13 −$5 -39%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $34 +$16 +48%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 30h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 32h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 39h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 41h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 42h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 42h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 43h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 43h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $0 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $3 47h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 47h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 47h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 47h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $144 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $144 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.89 · official $460.89 (match) · 3500 history records