Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe9cd…9a4c other 1333 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,377 (-3%) realized −$4,422 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%943W / 387L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$578
14 days−$416
30 days−$2,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1,889
sports 30% −$2,223
crypto 12% +$97
world 8% −$47
finance 6% −$1,158
weather 2% −$54
politics 1% +$22
tech 1% +$16
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -18.0% -25.8% 70% 35% -47.7%
≤30d 90 -22.3% -29.7% 58% 41% -35.0%
≤90d 755 -4.6% -13.6% 69% 43% -13.9%
all 1330 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 42% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 30% -21.3%
15% -28.2% 20% -28.9%
20% -35.3% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$77 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$4,422
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses943 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1330 / 1333
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 69¢ 100¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 21 $22 +$5 +21%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $10 +$5 +44%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $214 +$89 +41%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $102 +$35 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +26%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $253 +$196 +78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $15 +$3 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $80 −$51 -63%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $121 −$3 -2%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $121 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $202 −$202 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 07 $407 −$407 -100%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Kōchi United SC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 −$59 -59%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $202 −$51 -25%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$23 +23%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $149 +$54 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $50 1h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 69¢ $101 1h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Sumit Nagal 88¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Draper 89¢ $5 24h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 98¢ $10 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino BUY Nao Hibino 91¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 98¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 95¢ $10 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $42 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 82¢ $22 4d
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 69¢ $10 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $203 5d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $304 5d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 55¢ $143 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $303 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 62¢ $18 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 62¢ $119 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $102 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $214 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 6d
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 56¢ $253 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $30 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $51 7d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 60¢ $2 7d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 55¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.59 · official $194.59 (match) · 3500 history records