Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9cb…396d sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,063 (-21%) realized −$4,063 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%55W / 100L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$36
14 days−$108
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,998
other 4% −$138
crypto 0% −$18
politics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.0% -16.8% 40% 40% +2.7%
≤30d 35 -17.8% -25.6% 37% 37% -45.1%
≤90d 155 -5.6% -14.6% 35% 35% -29.3%
all 155 -5.6% -14.6% 35% 35% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 35% -29.3%
10% -22.8% 34% -36.1%
15% -30.2% 28% -42.3%
20% -37.1% 27% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$99 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,063
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses55 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage52d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$11 +58%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$28 +145%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$20 +122%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $32 +$35 +107%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$8 +32%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $15 +$20 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $148 −$144 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $3 +$2 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $291 −$199 -68%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $149 +$52 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $198 −$47 -24%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner May 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $55 −$55 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $99 +$56 +56%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1 +$3 +203%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $111 −$109 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $64 +$47 +74%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal May 21 $296 −$233 -79%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $37 −$32 -88%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $50 −$37 -74%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game May 12 $51 +$48 +95%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner May 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 10 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 10 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $294 −$157 -53%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 10 $112 −$110 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $59 −$22 -38%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner May 09 $18 +$15 +80%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 09 $51 +$14 +28%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 09 $15 −$13 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $30 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $19 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $7 47h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $47 47h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $19 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $14 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $9 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $67 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 83¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $25 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? A BUY $15 4d
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $5 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff SELL Overtake 98¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 42¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $148 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 493 history records