Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E9 0xe9ca…1d04 crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$21 (+5%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$27
other 25% +$3
sports 11% −$7
weather 10% −$2
world 7% −$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 5 +50.3% +36.0% 40% 20% -10.9%
≤90d 6 +41.3% +27.8% 33% 17% -11.3%
all 44 +22.1% +10.5% 55% 52% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 52% -5.5%
10% -0.1% 45% -14.6%
15% -9.8% 41% -22.8%
20% -18.6% 41% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage640d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -5%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 +$3 +263%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Feb 18 $3 +$3 +96%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Feb 07 $3 +$3 +96%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 5AM ET Feb 02 $8 +$8 +96%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Jan 11 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET Jan 11 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025? Dec 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 10AM ET Dec 27 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 8AM ET Dec 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET Dec 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET Nov 17 $7 +$7 +96%
Nascimento vs. Estevam Nov 13 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10AM ET Nov 13 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Canton launch a token in 2025? Nov 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDA Nov 06 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Sep 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Solana above $150 on May 9? May 21 $2 +$6 +245%
Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 21? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Official Trump above $12.50 on March 7? Mar 17 $3 $0 +14%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 10? Feb 28 $12 +$10 +82%
Rakhmonov vs. Garry Jan 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Gane vs. Volkov Jan 05 $25 +$8 +31%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Dec 06 $10 +$6 +56%
Solana all time high in Q4? Dec 06 $13 +$11 +89%
Solana above $155 on October 25? Nov 10 $9 +$2 +19%
Ethereum above $2,600 on October 25? Nov 10 $3 +$9 +257%
Solana above $145 on October 11? Oct 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 11? Oct 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on October 4? Oct 08 $18 +$11 +61%
Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? Oct 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27? Oct 01 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum above $2,400 on September 20? Sep 24 $5 +$13 +257%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 20? Sep 24 $5 +$14 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? SELL No 63¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $40 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? SELL No 55¢ $26 23h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY No 56¢ $27 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $39 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $40 25h
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 14d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? SELL No 71¢ $0 14d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? SELL No 71¢ $5 14d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? BUY No 70¢ $5 14d
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 74¢ $29 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 77¢ $30 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 125d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 134d
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 141d
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 166d
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 191d
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 8AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 198d
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 211d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 219d
Nascimento vs. Estevam BUY Estevam 51¢ $3 225d
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDA BUY GL-PvdA 81¢ $2 235d
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $3 250d
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025? BUY No 69¢ $2 258d
Will Canton launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 269d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? BUY No 13¢ $3 285d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? BUY No 84¢ $3 302d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records