Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9c8…e02f crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%37W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$99
world 1% +$1
politics 1% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤90d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 50% -2.7%
all 86 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 37% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -15.5%
10% -26.9% 29% -23.6%
15% -34.0% 27% -31.0%
20% -40.5% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage99d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$28 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$18 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$34 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$19 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$20 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$80 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 15 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Black Plastic" this week? (March 8) Mar 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 15 $49 −$8 -16%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 15 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 15 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 15 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 15 $17 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 15 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $28 −$22 -79%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 15 $22 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 09 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7PM ET Mar 08 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $19 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 378 history records