Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9c7…147a other 403 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 167d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,616 (+1%) realized +$2,784 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%225W / 146L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$8,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$3,945
14 days−$2,616
30 days−$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% +$389
world 21% +$982
finance 17% +$169
crypto 13% +$2,970
tech 8% +$137
politics 7% −$615
sports 6% −$2,481
weather 3% +$77
economics 2% +$608
culture 0% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -21.4% -28.9% 47% 34% -27.8%
≤30d 158 -14.5% -22.6% 56% 27% -10.1%
≤90d 308 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 21% -9.1%
all 371 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 24% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 24% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 15% -17.7%
15% -31.5% 12% -25.6%
20% -38.3% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$88 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$8,351
Realized+$2,784
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses225 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions31
Markets (closed)371 / 403
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$939
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $2,724 $2,757 +$33 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 96¢ 92¢ $1,600 $1,537 −$63 (-4%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 99¢ 98¢ $420 $418 −$2 (-0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $384 $375 −$9 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $312 $310 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $213 $220 +$8 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 70¢ 69¢ $211 $210 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 67¢ 68¢ $202 $206 +$5 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 39¢ 40¢ $197 $205 +$8 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 60¢ $182 $180 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 69¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 54¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 40¢ $125 $120 −$5 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 36¢ 40¢ $106 $119 +$13 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $120 $119 −$2 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $119 $114 −$5 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $107 $102 −$5 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 34¢ 32¢ $103 $98 −$5 (-4%)
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 91¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $26 $43 +$17 (+64%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$70 +133%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $38 +$4 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $22 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 −$1 -2%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$20 +90%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA W Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $38 +$4 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$8 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$4 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 +$28 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $38 −$37 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $37 +$5 +13%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $400 +$7 +2%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World C Jun 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $38 +$4 +10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 +$5 +26%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$11 +101%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $38 +$4 +12%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 +$14 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,405 +$10 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $360 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $22 −$10 -46%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$17 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 +$21 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA W BUY Yes 95¢ $95 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $38 8h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 91¢ $38 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $22 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $13 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $18 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $15 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $8 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $17 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 95¢ $40 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 89¢ $38 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $8 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 8h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $9 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $548 21h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 98¢ $400 22h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World C BUY Yes 95¢ $200 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $1,415 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $233 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $222 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,351.05 · official $8,320.57 (match) · 3500 history records