Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9c4…f142 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$12
politics 33% −$9
sports 8% −$33
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 105 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage119d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $420 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $237 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $402 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $179 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $630 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $413 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $427 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $415 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $443 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $371 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $205 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 43h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 23d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $237 23d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $237 38d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 40d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 47d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $197 47d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $197 47d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $224 47d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $224 48d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 48d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $222 48d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 48d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 49d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 49d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 49d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 49d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 49d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 50d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.95 · official $62.95 (match) · 314 history records