Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9bf…e5d8 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%63W / 66L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$306
14 days+$736
30 days+$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$408
other 22% +$252
world 1% −$66
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.1% -14.2% 45% 45% +19.3%
≤30d 84 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 38% +0.4%
≤90d 129 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 43% +0.0%
all 129 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 43% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 43% +0.0%
10% -21.5% 41% -9.5%
15% -29.1% 39% -18.3%
20% -36.0% 35% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$23 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses63 / 66
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 151
History coverage125d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$5 -44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $39 +$25 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $134 +$59 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$6 -21%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $89 +$50 +57%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $28 −$19 -66%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $32 +$22 +68%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $50 +$38 +76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$17 +66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$44 +89%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $28 −$19 -68%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$85 +171%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $166 +$119 +72%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $51 +$68 +133%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$10 -52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 +$27 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$40 +267%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $160 +$122 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $39 +$35 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$28 +110%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$32 +96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$30 +186%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $129 +$85 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $26 +$47 +185%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 +$49 +96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 +$30 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$17 -59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$33 +128%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$38 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$12 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 −$58 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 55m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 56m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $64 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $39 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $134 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 42h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $25 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $89 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $10 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spai BUY 41¢ $15 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 5.5 Co BUY 35¢ $26 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $28 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY 40¢ $37 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $54 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $32 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $33 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $50 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 52¢ $136 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $34 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 87¢ $94 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 57¢ $60 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL 14¢ $9 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $50 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 42¢ $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.18 · official $12.18 (match) · 357 history records