Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b9…1d4d sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-12%) realized −$313 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$199
14 days+$202
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$262
other 16% −$72
world 1% +$19
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 60% +25.5%
≤30d 17 -39.2% -45.0% 35% 35% -33.5%
≤90d 31 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 42% -28.6%
all 32 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 44% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -21.3%
10% -27.0% 44% -28.8%
15% -34.0% 44% -35.7%
20% -40.5% 28% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$76 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage103d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $147 +$70 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $222 +$207 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $45 +$22 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$47 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $59 +$54 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $60 −$59 -98%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 30 $150 −$150 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 30 $4 +$2 +60%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $26 +$106 +415%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $112 +$177 +158%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $50 +$38 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 13 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 09 $120 −$120 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $30 +$19 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $50 +$21 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $70 +$31 +45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 22 $150 +$67 +45%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $100 +$178 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $147 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 67¢ $45 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 44¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $19 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $203 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $26 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $15 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $51 11d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 48¢ $60 11d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 51¢ $59 11d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 18d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $30 18d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $29 18d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 62¢ $4 39d
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 39d
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? BUY No 49¢ $11 39d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 38¢ $112 50d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $200 59d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 59d
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Charles Jourdain 56¢ $50 60d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 30¢ $75 60d
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Mandel Nallo 62¢ $80 60d
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Thiago Moises 41¢ $80 60d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Jack Della Maddalena 56¢ $150 63d
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 68d
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.78 · official $137.78 (match) · 76 history records