Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9b7…0699 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 652d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$654 (-58%) realized −$605 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 652d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$681
other 27% −$23
sports 9% −$25
crypto 3% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +54.1%
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +54.1%
≤90d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +54.1%
all 3 -34.1% -40.4% 33% 33% -92.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 33% -92.2%
10% -46.1% 33% -93.0%
15% -51.3% 33% -93.7%
20% -56.1% 33% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$343 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage652d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 21¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 36¢ 32¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 19¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 29¢ 27¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Sep 10 $681 −$681 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $47 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 36¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $77 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $100 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $10 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $100 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $100 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 23¢ $45 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 23¢ $100 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 23¢ $10 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 23¢ $100 651d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $1 652d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $37 652d
Who will win the debate according to polls? BUY Trump 24¢ $1 652d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.62 · official $299.48 · 23 history records