Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe9b7…f46d sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,278 (-19%) realized −$1,277 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$14
14 days−$797
30 days−$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,744
other 36% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.5% -31.7% 38% 38% -12.7%
≤30d 27 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 41% -30.3%
≤90d 27 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 41% -30.3%
all 41 -23.2% -30.5% 41% 41% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 41% -31.0%
10% -37.2% 39% -37.6%
15% -43.2% 39% -43.7%
20% -48.8% 29% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$142 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$1,277
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage288d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $154 −$82 -53%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$84 +165%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$35 +136%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $98 +$35 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$181 -89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$54 +88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO5) Dec 07 $164 −$164 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) Nov 23 $176 −$176 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner Nov 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Nov 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5) Nov 09 $140 −$50 -36%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $200 +$192 +96%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $429 +$298 +70%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming Sep 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $45 +$8 +18%
Will PARIVISION win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Sep 12 $638 +$391 +61%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. PARIVISION Sep 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Team Falcons Sep 11 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $73 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 8¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $20 11h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $20 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY 24¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $10 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 14¢ $103 4d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 8¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $51 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $504 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge SELL 68¢ $31 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $303 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 9d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 22¢ $10 9d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $25 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $98 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.89 · official $271.35 · 94 history records