Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b5…ef92 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-3%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate69%41W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$95
weather 4% −$7
sports 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +2.3% -7.5% 69% 58% -5.9%
≤30d 59 +2.3% -7.5% 69% 58% -5.9%
≤90d 59 +2.3% -7.5% 69% 58% -5.9%
all 59 +2.3% -7.5% 69% 58% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 58% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -14.9%
15% -24.4% 32% -23.1%
20% -31.8% 22% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses41 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage2d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $198 +$146 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$20 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $131 +$23 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $43 +$26 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $86 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$12 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $123 −$123 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$49 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $138 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$24 +52%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $81 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $184 −$135 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $91 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $147 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 0¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 44¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records