Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b3…2bea other 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-5%) realized −$482 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%100W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$131
14 days+$46
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$244
sports 24% −$423
politics 2% +$178
crypto 1% −$49
world 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 59% 59% +7.4%
≤30d 40 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 55% +1.5%
≤90d 62 -33.8% -40.1% 39% 39% -17.7%
all 200 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 48% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 48% -14.8%
10% -23.4% 42% -22.9%
15% -30.8% 33% -30.4%
20% -37.6% 26% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$37 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses100 / 100
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)200 / 203
History coverage272d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 25 $20 +$14 +70%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $20 +$14 +70%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 25 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 +$17 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$66 +130%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +50%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $260 +$108 +42%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $132 +$172 +131%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $99 +$144 +146%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Apr 28 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-04? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $34 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 58¢ $20 12h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $20 12h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kia Tigers 62¢ $20 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $30 25h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.77 · official $127.78 (match) · 439 history records