Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe9b2…62f5 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$919 (+26%) realized +$984 · open −$65
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$900
sports 25% +$179
crypto 19% −$99
tech 18% +$72
politics 4% −$116
economics 3% +$6
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.7% -28.3% 67% 67% -0.2%
≤30d 3 -20.7% -28.3% 67% 67% -0.2%
≤90d 12 -7.7% -16.4% 58% 58% +3.9%
all 25 -22.0% -29.4% 52% 36% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 36% +16.3%
10% -36.2% 28% +5.2%
15% -42.4% 24% -5.0%
20% -48.0% 12% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$41 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$984
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage262d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 16¢ $66 $1 −$65 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$27 +26%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 19 $629 +$71 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $51 −$48 -95%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $151 +$69 +46%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $102 +$130 +128%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 29 $101 +$59 +58%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $141 +$54 +38%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 28 $9 −$4 -48%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 28 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $93 +$6 +7%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Feb 24 $691 +$972 +141%
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti Feb 01 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 01 $29 −$19 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 21 $208 +$38 +18%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 12 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $186 −$144 -78%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 18 $341 +$23 +7%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 24h
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $51 50d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL GIANTX $2 51d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY GIANTX 39¢ $51 51d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 27¢ $51 51d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 50¢ $51 51d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 68¢ $151 52d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier SELL Solary $5 52d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo BUY Fnatic 63¢ $101 52d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY Solary $9 52d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner SELL Shifters 90¢ $2 52d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner SELL Shifters 90¢ $106 52d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner BUY Shifters 41¢ $102 52d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $51 52d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $6 52d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $84 52d
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi BUY G2 NORD 69¢ $100 53d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $100 115d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 12¢ $86 115d
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $66 123d
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti SELL Yes $1 138d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside SELL No 10¢ $10 138d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? SELL Yes $128 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $67 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $8 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $8 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $5 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $8 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes $0 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.61 · official $127.61 (match) · 176 history records