Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe9b1…98fa sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80 (+4%) realized −$101 · open +$181
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$155
crypto 35% +$192
sports 25% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +48.8% +34.7% 50% 50% +17.8%
≤30d 20 +48.8% +34.7% 50% 50% +17.8%
≤90d 20 +48.8% +34.7% 50% 50% +17.8%
all 20 +48.8% +34.7% 50% 50% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.7% 50% +17.8%
10% +21.8% 50% +6.6%
15% +10.0% 50% -3.7%
20% -0.8% 45% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$30 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$750
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 37
History coverage26d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $228 $367 +$139 (+61%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $239 $301 +$62 (+26%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 27¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Curacao reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $53 +$189 +359%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$63 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$61 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$41 +365%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $21 −$8 -40%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$32 +287%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 +$21 +84%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$42 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$50 +308%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $57 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $139 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $101 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $110 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $215 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win BUY 32¢ $68 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 21¢ $53 45h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 34¢ $61 2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes $12 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $10 3d
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.81 · official $755.62 (match) · 84 history records