Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9af…f4f7 sports 866 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$864 (-2%) realized −$864 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%545W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day92.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$452
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$216
sports 8% −$447
crypto 1% −$22
politics 1% +$4
finance 0% +$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -13.6% -21.8% 61% 51% -19.4%
≤30d 731 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 49% -10.7%
≤90d 861 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 54% -10.6%
all 861 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 54% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 54% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 45% -19.2%
15% -29.7% 31% -27.0%
20% -36.6% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses545 / 316
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)861 / 866
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day92.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 77¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $2 +$1 +97%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 +$1 +86%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +65%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +70%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +50%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $3 +$1 +53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +38%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 +$1 +42%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang BUY Sonja Zhiyenbayeva 53¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 5d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 50¢ $2 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $2 5d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 65¢ $2 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 5d
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Varvara Panshina 53¢ $0 5d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li BUY Zongyu Li 60¢ $1 5d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li BUY Zongyu Li 72¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 51¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 51¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 51¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 51¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 72¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $0 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 70¢ $1 5d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY Dallas Wings 97¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 5d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 97¢ $0 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 91¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 81¢ $0 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $2.15 (match) · 3500 history records