Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe9aa…6628 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$685 (+77%) realized +$687 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$730
14 days+$821
30 days+$821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$770
other 13% +$91
crypto 12% −$51
finance 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +33.5% +20.7% 31% 31% +78.5%
≤30d 57 +42.3% +28.8% 28% 28% +69.3%
≤90d 58 +40.7% +27.3% 28% 28% +67.0%
all 60 +36.0% +23.1% 27% 27% +65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 27% +65.3%
10% +11.3% 25% +49.5%
15% +0.5% 25% +35.0%
20% -9.3% 22% +21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$5 · ×12.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$687
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$125 +185%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $87 +$113 +129%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$190 +1900%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -12%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 +$16 +530%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $230 +$225 +98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$33 +107%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +125%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $120 +$167 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $28 −$27 -98%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Cuiabá EC leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $192 30m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $34 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $13 7h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $15 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $8 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $87 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $455 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $65 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $31 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $230 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $15 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $3.12 (match) · 180 history records