Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a9…d93d crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$60
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.3% -2.0% 90% 70% +1.5%
≤30d 26 -12.0% -20.3% 69% 62% -16.6%
≤90d 26 -12.0% -20.3% 69% 62% -16.6%
all 26 -12.0% -20.3% 69% 62% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 62% -16.6%
10% -28.0% 35% -24.6%
15% -34.9% 8% -31.8%
20% -41.3% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $172 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$29 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $54 −$46 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$35 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 48¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 36¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 54¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $68 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 44¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 44¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records