Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a6…9a5a world 58 markets active 1d ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate17%10W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$7
other 18% −$3
politics 10% $0
culture 3% +$7
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 11% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 5% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 5% 5% -10.7%
all 58 -3.7% -12.9% 17% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage373d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $158 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $16 −$2 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $14 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $6 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $6 $0 +5%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $1 $0 -39%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 29 $6 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 28 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 26 $1 $0 -36%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 26 $2 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $46 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records