Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a4…d04e other 170 markets active 21h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%16W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$6
world 21% $0
politics 13% −$1
crypto 9% $0
finance 7% −$2
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 39 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 114 -6.2% -15.1% 11% 0% -14.1%
all 169 -5.2% -14.2% 9% 1% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 1% -13.4%
10% -22.4% 0% -21.7%
15% -29.9% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses16 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage165d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
QFEX FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 94¢ 57¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market cl Jun 03 $1 $0 -40%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -1%
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? May 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by June 30? May 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump or Melania say "Movie Star" during the Congressional Picnic May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Super Bowl" this week? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw May 14 $1 $0 -2%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be betwe May 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be less May 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 22? May 11 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 99¢ $1 20h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 95¢ $1 20h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $1 20h
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 44h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 44h
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 8d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $1.26 (match) · 473 history records