Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a3…7aa5 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
other 34% +$3
politics 9% +$29
tech 9% $0
crypto 5% −$13
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 0% -9.6%
all 63 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -8.4%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.1%
15% -25.5% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage460d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +38%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $12 +$32 +267%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $3 $0 -6%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will George Simion win by 12–18%? May 22 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Truth Social memecoin launch this week? May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 20m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $28 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $31 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records