Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a2…a587 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-31%) realized −$112 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$101
sports 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 17% -54.2%
≤30d 18 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 17% -54.2%
≤90d 18 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 17% -54.2%
all 18 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 17% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 17% -54.2%
10% -58.7% 17% -58.6%
15% -62.7% 17% -62.6%
20% -66.3% 17% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +128%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$31 +307%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $15 +$13 +82%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 33m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.38 · official $126.38 (match) · 29 history records