Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe99f…e595 sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$615 (-4%) realized −$615 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate68%67W / 32L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$1,031
14 days−$604
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$387
other 39% −$286
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -19.3% -27.0% 49% 46% -20.1%
≤30d 99 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 60% -13.6%
≤90d 99 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 60% -13.6%
all 99 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 60% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 60% -13.6%
10% -22.1% 28% -21.9%
15% -29.6% 13% -29.4%
20% -36.5% 5% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$85 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses67 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage30d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $38 +$14 +36%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $29 +$9 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$3 +13%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $17 +$4 +23%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $14 +$3 +20%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $129 −$84 -66%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$12 -72%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $595 −$592 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $485 +$110 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $231 +$253 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $643 −$257 -40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $189 −$148 -78%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2,185 −$732 -34%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $938 +$242 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $662 +$275 +42%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $697 −$36 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $119 −$118 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $795 +$23 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $53 +$42 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $643 +$109 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $533 +$106 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $124 +$13 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $97 +$28 +29%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $84 +$13 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $432 +$52 +12%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $420 +$8 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $396 +$28 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 −$4 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $380 +$86 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $341 +$40 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $284 +$56 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $234 +$50 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $5 +$2 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $190 +$52 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 98¢ $60 3m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $59 5m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 86¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $52 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $38 3h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY No 76¢ $29 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $24 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $21 20h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $21 20h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $17 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $17 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $14 22h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 72¢ $15 26h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 99¢ $14 26h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 3¢ $0 26h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 85¢ $12 26h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 16¢ $12 26h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 84¢ $79 27h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 16¢ $4 27h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 54¢ $14 27h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 44¢ $14 27h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $23 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $19 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $22 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $21 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $22 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.31 · official $58.47 · 208 history records