Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe99e…0084 sports 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,943 (-3%) realized −$1,853 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%290W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$477
14 days+$993
30 days−$799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,745
other 2% −$237
world 1% −$258
crypto 1% −$237
politics 1% +$21
tech 0% −$34
culture 0% −$50
economics 0% +$80
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +28.8% +16.5% 69% 62% +28.7%
≤30d 117 -16.8% -24.7% 40% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 263 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 43% -11.3%
all 659 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -12.8%
10% -22.9% 42% -21.1%
15% -30.4% 39% -28.7%
20% -37.2% 33% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$79 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$1,853
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses290 / 369
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions7
Markets (closed)659 / 666
History coverage241d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 35¢ 34¢ $152 $147 −$5 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 20¢ 9¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$16 (-96%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $92 +$133 +145%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $251 −$21 -8%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $61 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 +$61 +158%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $32 +$68 +216%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $113 +$86 +76%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$31 +36%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $51 +$49 +96%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $84 +$53 +63%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $121 +$78 +64%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $194 +$85 +44%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $63 +$37 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $69 +$112 +162%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $72 +$28 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 07 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $64 +$36 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $460 +$428 +93%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $164 +$86 +52%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $50 +$50 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $106 +$42 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $129 +$121 +93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $52 +$48 +93%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $49 +$51 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $56 +$44 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $29 +$36 +122%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $57 +$43 +76%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $117 +$83 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $135 +$126 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $16 +$23 +142%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $49 0m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $14 6m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $10 8m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 32¢ $73 8m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $34 45m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 90¢ $224 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $92 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $107 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $45 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $41 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 41¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 15¢ $9 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 14¢ $14 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 12¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 94¢ $97 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 94¢ $111 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 94¢ $27 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $67 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $119 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 26¢ $25 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $42 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 63¢ $62 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $31 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 32¢ $33 29h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 33¢ $34 29h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $61 40h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $39 44h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $200 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.30 · official $332.30 (match) · 1962 history records