Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe99d…a5b8 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-7%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%93W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$45
other 36% +$4
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$17
world 6% +$1
politics 2% −$7
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 33% 33% +4.4%
≤30d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 33% 33% +4.4%
≤90d 229 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 34% -16.7%
all 229 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 34% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -16.7%
10% -26.0% 23% -24.7%
15% -33.1% 16% -32.0%
20% -39.7% 12% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses93 / 136
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)229 / 237
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +242%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $7 +$2 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Apr 24 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Apr 24 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $2 +$3 +145%
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 22 $11 −$1 -12%
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 22 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $2 +$4 +196%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 21 $3 −$1 -36%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%? Apr 20 $13 −$5 -35%
Spread: Punjab FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $4 $0 -6%
Will Punjab FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 $0 +42%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $1 $0 -20%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $8 −$1 -7%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 +$1 +25%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $3 −$2 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 59m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.46 · official $12.46 (match) · 663 history records