Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe999…663b politics 13 markets active 7d ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-8%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$7
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 11 -8.3% -17.0% 0% 0% -16.7%
all 11 -8.3% -17.0% 0% 0% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -16.7%
10% -25.0% 0% -24.7%
15% -32.2% 0% -32.0%
20% -38.9% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage86d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $6 $0 -9%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $6 $0 -9%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $5 $0 -10%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $8 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 60d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 60d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 136 history records