Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe998…b7f0 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,627 (+6%) realized +$16,626 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%69W / 97L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,594per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$615est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$18,554
sports 32% −$6,831
crypto 0% +$992
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.5% +18.1% 62% 62% +45.1%
≤30d 100 -68.2% -71.3% 13% 13% -61.2%
≤90d 124 -35.5% -41.7% 28% 28% -22.6%
all 166 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 40% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 40% -6.8%
10% -19.2% 40% -15.7%
15% -27.0% 39% -23.9%
20% -34.2% 37% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$2,249) neutral
Persistence
early +71% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,998 vs −$1,354 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$16,626
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$615
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 165
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,594
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 60¢ 60¢ $153 $154 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,411 −$2,411 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,411 −$2,411 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,076 −$1,254 -21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$57 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 +$103 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,216 +$9,296 +178%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,782 +$4,422 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 +$104 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,620 +$6,380 +138%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $337 +$98 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,076 +$4,784 +117%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Spurs Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 09 $1,924 +$4,160 +216%
Nets vs. Jazz Jun 09 $592 −$290 -49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Jun 09 $278 −$278 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jun 09 $543 −$543 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-01? Jun 09 $376 −$376 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 09 $355 −$355 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Jun 09 $386 −$386 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 09 $234 −$234 -100%
Flyers vs. Utah Jun 09 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 09 $218 −$218 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jun 09 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-25? Jun 09 $297 −$297 -100%
Penguins vs. Canucks Jun 09 $396 −$396 -100%
Senators vs. Flyers Jun 09 $438 −$438 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-28? Jun 09 $1,001 −$580 -58%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-29? Jun 09 $402 −$402 -100%
Utah vs. Flyers Jun 09 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 09 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Jun 09 $656 −$656 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 09 $753 −$753 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 09 $1,119 −$1,119 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Jun 09 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Jun 09 $799 −$799 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Jun 09 $980 −$980 -100%
Kings vs. Kraken Jun 09 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19? Jun 09 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Jun 09 $1,253 −$1,253 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 09 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Jun 09 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Wild vs. Utah Jun 09 $1,172 −$1,172 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 09 $896 −$896 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 09 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Jun 09 $1,441 −$1,441 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $155 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $6,076 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $59 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $183 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $714 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $4,320 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $12,204 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $540 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $7,596 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $186 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $121 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 42¢ $4,620 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $337 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $71 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $16 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $41 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $24 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $70 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $63 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.28 · official $154.28 (match) · 1304 history records