Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe998…bfaa other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate88%74W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$36
politics 21% +$16
weather 8% +$3
other 8% −$2
economics 5% +$4
world 3% +$20
crypto 2% +$3
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 47 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 2% -9.2%
all 84 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 1% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.59 per $1 lost it wins $7.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses74 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage180d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 21 $220 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 12 $301 +$10 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 29 $3 $0 -10%
Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attor May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $118 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? May 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 15 $187 +$3 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 12 $292 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $18 +$18 +104%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 06 $147 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 02 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 27 $142 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $144 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 20 $281 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $131 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $146 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $143 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Apr 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? Apr 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 27 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $8,060 +$22 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 25 $4,445 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 24? Mar 25 $1,514 +$2 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $1,108 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 23? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 23? Mar 24 $572 +$3 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $924 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 23 $4,450 +$2 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $54 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 15 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $221 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $220 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $100 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $118 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 97¢ $98 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY Yes $2 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 95¢ $201 19d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes $13 20d
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL No $3 22d
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No $3 22d
Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attor BUY No $0 25d
Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attor BUY No $0 25d
Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attor BUY No $0 25d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $168 26d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 98¢ $10 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $118 34d
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? SELL No 100¢ $72 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.84 · official $28.84 (match) · 419 history records