Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe997…88aa sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,073 (-21%) realized −$1,063 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$645
other 25% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +69.0% +52.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
≤30d 2 +69.0% +52.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
≤90d 27 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 56% -28.9%
all 27 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 56% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 56% -28.9%
10% -29.1% 48% -35.7%
15% -36.0% 41% -42.0%
20% -42.3% 30% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$215 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,063
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage69d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 54¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$10 +52%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $109 −$107 -98%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5 May 16 $111 −$110 -99%
FC Cajamarca vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 15 $163 +$58 +35%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 15 $130 +$33 +26%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? May 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score May 15 $91 +$57 +62%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $76 +$15 +20%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $43 +$34 +79%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $37 +$6 +15%
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 May 03 $16 +$6 +39%
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 Apr 21 $350 −$347 -99%
PFK CSKA Moskva vs. FK Rostov: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $209 +$141 +67%
FK Sochi vs. PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $171 +$39 +23%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Gaziantep FK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $64 +$36 +57%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $108 −$107 -99%
Udinese Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $540 −$534 -99%
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $299 −$296 -99%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $80 −$80 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $665 +$378 +57%
UC Sampdoria vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $243 +$422 +174%
Le Mans FC vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $303 −$299 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $476 −$473 -99%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $533 +$253 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $19 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 9h
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 41¢ $109 34d
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $111 34d
FC Cajamarca vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $220 35d
FC Cajamarca vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $163 35d
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 35d
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $130 35d
CD Castellón leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 35d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $148 35d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $91 35d
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 35d
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $76 35d
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 35d
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $43 35d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 95¢ $43 47d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 47d
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 47d
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $16 47d
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $350 59d
PFK CSKA Moskva vs. FK Rostov: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $350 59d
PFK CSKA Moskva vs. FK Rostov: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $209 59d
FK Sochi vs. PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $209 59d
FK Sochi vs. PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $171 59d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 66¢ $100 60d
Gaziantep FK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 60d
Gaziantep FK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $64 60d
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $108 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.17 · official $21.15 · 43 history records